Market Update

Updated on May 22, 2017 10:25:08 AM EDT
Monday’s bond market has opened down slightly as stocks start the week with gains. The Dow is currently up 80 points while the Nasdaq is up 29 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32 (2.24%), but due to some strength late Friday we still should see a slight improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates if comparing to Friday’s early pricing.

There is nothing of importance scheduled for today. The rest of the week brings us the release of five pieces of economic data that may impact mortgage rates in addition to two Treasury auctions and the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting. None of the events are considered key or expected to be a market mover, but most of them carry enough importance to affect mortgage pricing if they show a decent sized variance from forecasts.

The first release of the week will be April's New Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This data gives us a small measurement of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand but probably will not have much of an impact on mortgage pricing unless it shows a sizable variance from forecasts. Analysts are expecting to see a decline in sales from March's level, meaning the new home portion of the housing sector softened last month.

Overall, Friday is the most important day of the week with three pieces of data being released, but Wednesday may also be pretty active. The calmest day for rates day will probably be today or Thursday. Last week’s bond rally pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield below a key level of 2.25% before inching back to it. If it breaks above, there is a high probably of it and mortgage pricing moving noticeably higher. On the other hand, if that level holds, there is room for further improvements in rates. The next couple of days will tell which direction we are likely headed. Accordingly, please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future as we could see a noticeable move either direction this week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

 ©Mortgage Commentary 2017
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