Today's Commentary

Updated on August 5, 2020 10:03:58 AM EDT
Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite mixed economic news. Stock gains are likely contributing to this morning’s early weakness in bonds also. The Dow is currently up 261 points while the Nasdaq has gained 43 points. The bond market is currently down 10/32 (0.54%), which should cause this morning’s mortgage rates to be approximately .125 of a discount point higher than yesterday’s early pricing.

July's ADP Employment report was posted at 8:15 AM ET this morning with an announcement that only 167,000 new private sector jobs were added to the economy last month. This was a far cry from expectations of 1.8 million, giving an indication that the employment sector may be even weaker than thought. Interestingly though, June’s number was revised from up 2.36 million to 4.31 million. That means June was much stronger than previously thought while July was much softer. July’s figures should be drawing the most attention, but bonds are holding onto early losses, causing an upward move in rates.

Tomorrow’s only relevant release is last week’s unemployment figures. There are no monthly or quarterly economic reports scheduled that we will be watching, but the unemployment update does carry enough significance these days to directly affect mortgage pricing. Since a high number of initial filings is considered to be a sign of employment sector weakness, the higher the number of new filings, the better the news it is for mortgage rates. Forecasts are calling for another 1.4 million initial filings for benefits. Any number above 1 million new claims will be the twentieth consecutive week above that level.


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