Today's Commentary

Updated on September 23, 2022 10:09:40 AM EDT
Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again as the post-FOMC negative momentum carries into this morning’s session. Stocks are showing sizable losses of 387 points in the Dow and 218 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (3.72%). While that is a minor loss in bonds, heavy selling and multiple upward revisions to rates yesterday are going to cause this morning’s pricing to be significantly higher than Thursday’s early pricing. It is safe to assume that the increase showing this morning will be somewhere between three-quarters and a full discount point if compared to Thursday’s morning rates.

Yesterday was an ugly day for the bond market and mortgage rates. There is no other way to describe it. Despite a relatively muted reaction to the FOMC events Wednesday afternoon, bonds started off weak yesterday and selling snowballed throughout the day. The sell-off pushed the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield to its highest level since 2010, causing widespread upward revisions to mortgage pricing. It remains to be seen if this spike has peaked yet, but at some point in the immediate future we should see a nice correction that brings rates back down a little.

Next week has plenty scheduled that may affect mortgage rates. There is a large number of economic reports set for release in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions and a Fed speaking engagement or two. Monday has nothing of importance that we need to be concerned with, meaning weekend news should drive trading as the new week begins. There is something scheduled for every other day, making it likely that it will be an active week. Look for details on all the scheduled activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

 ©Mortgage Commentary 2022
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